Snowflakes in Hell

There’s been a lot of talk in the comments about how Republicans need to do this or that so that their political outlook will match up perfectly with whatever pet issues the commenter finds appealing.  This is no way to build a coalition.  The question at hand is what the Republican coalition looks like now, and how to build it back to a majority coalition.  Right now, the Republican Party is a coalition of:

1. Religious and value voters
2. Nationalist conservatives, or national greatness conservatives
3. Sportsmen
4. Fiscal conservatives who want smaller government.

Each of these categories is, itself, contain a bunch of subcoalitions.  But these are the basic categories I’ll enumerate for this exercise.  Jettison one, you no longer have a majority.  Bush essentially lost the coalition by catering heavily to 1 and 2, throwing a few bones to 3, and doing his level best to pretend 4 isn’t that important.  Bush basically cut taxes, and then told 4 to take a hike.  The other problem is that 4 are often not keen on 1’s social agenda, and many have migrated to the Democraic Party, no real bastion for 4s issues, but when 4 sees no difference between the parties, they will vote on social issues.  This is how Republicans have lost the Northeast and the coastal West.

But here’s the rub: the folks in 1 vote, in huge numbers.  Their turnout machine is unparalleled.  Mike Huckabee was a long shot, but with basically only the religious vote, he managed to take several southern states in the primaries.  John McCain is a solid 2, and for those that think paleoconservatism is the path to the future, McCain won the nomination with pretty much only the 2 vote, and enough 3 and 4 who are still left, because Romeny didn’t really inspire.  You don’t win elections without 1 and 2.  So to quote SayUncle: It’s time to put on our big boy pants, and come up with a platform that keeps the coalition together.

The religious voters in the Republican party need to understand that they live in a secular country, and that younger voters aren’t as religious as their parents.  Those are just the breaks.  You can’t legislate your way out of that.  Amending constitutions isn’t going to fix it.  But by the same token, the 2s, 3s, and 4s of the coalition need to accept some value issues in the Republican platform in order to get the religious vote to turn out and work for the coalition.  If the 4s want to build a coalition without 1s, they have to create a turnout machine that surpasses that of the religious vote.  Unfortunately, that requires more work than most 4s are willing to put in.

Once you get involved in electoral politics, it becomes readily apparently why libertarians have no seat at the table: they don’t bring anything to it.  That’s what has to change if they want a bigger voice.

Dave Kopel reports it’s not a disaster, and makes this note about the presidency:

President. Based on past record, certainly a -1. One important difference between our last Democratic President and our next one is the latter has shown himself to be much more self-disciplined. Accordingly, it is possible that he will not waste his political capital on a reckless culture war against gun owners, as President Clinton foolishly did.

So perhaps President Obama will spend his political capital elsewhere, and be a -0.1 President on the gun issue. The approach would be in line with the positive, unifying themes that Obama presented on victory night in Iowa last January, and with his eloquent victory speech tonight.

I don’t know if President Obama will be so temperate. But anyone who fears for the worst can still hope for the best.

We must hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.  2010 will be important for us.

Steven Den Beste has an excellent, and serious post about this election.  But I love his update:

One other good thing: no one will be spinning grand conspiracy theories about this administration’s Vice President being an evil, conniving genius who is the true power behind the throne.

Joe Biden is Obama’s insurance policy.  He’s better protection for him than a whole legion of Secret Service agents.

From tgirsch:

Anyway, it’s not the end of the world, and this too shall pass. You’ll get over it. And if you wait long enough, the Democrats will screw themselves, as parties in power always do, and it will once again be your turn to fuck everything up royally.

Very true.

A college professor who gets a tingle up his leg from stealing McCain signs.  What great people who have won this election.

I can’t agree more with this message from Bob Krumm and Rightwingprof.  Obama won.  He will be legitimately our President.  The margins were high enough in most of the states that mattered, I don’t think we can attribute it to fraud.  We can attribute it to Republicans sucking.  I am willing to give Obama the chance to govern as the center-left moderate he’s sold himself as.  I am willing to give him a chance to show me he’s not going to come after gun owners.  And I am absolutely willing to start talking about the 2010 elections.  We have an election to win, folks, and we only have two years to get ready.

Unfortunately, we lost our presidential and congressional race this election.  It was a bad day to be a Republican, and people overhwelmingly said the economy was their top concern.  But, both our endorsed State Representatives comfortably held on to their seat, and we did oust one anti-gun Democrat in my distrct (Chris King).  We also got a B rated state rep elected over a question mark candidate.  Interestingly enough, I don’t think Obama’s coattails reached down to state level races.  We did pretty well at the state level, overall, at least in my district.

My State Representative, Chris King, who’s grade dropped from an A- to a C-, was ousted by Frank Farry.   Frank’s NRA grade was “?” because he didn’t get his questionare in, so I could send him no volunteers.  But I did talk to him, and got a reassurance he was a good guy on our issue.  This is a win for gun owners.  It’s also a win for class.  Seriously, how much of a goober are you if you don’t show up to thank your supporters and congratulate your opponent?  I think it’s safe to say Chris King’s political career is finished.  Frank Farry ran a stellar campaign, and to oust an incumbent as a Republican in a Democratic election year is a testament to that.  I hope we’ll be able to work with Frank moving forward, and that he’ll earn an NRA endorsement for 2010.

Let’s be honest about who’s fault it really is we lost this election.  The Rove strategy has proven to be a total failure at this point.  New England now has no Republican representation left at all.  Pennsylvania is following close behind.  The South is still solid, well, except for Virginia, and maybe North Carolina.  George Bush destroyed the Republican Party, with a lot of help from a formerly Republican Congress.

Your name can be Barack Hussein Obama, and you can be black, and you can be President.  America is not a racist country.  There was no Bradley Effect.  If you think about America going from forcing African Americans to sit on the back of the bus, to electing one President within a generation, that’s really not an achievement that should be discounted.  I am worried for my country because of the political outcome of this election, but there is a silver lining in this outcome.

That is all.  Get ready folks, we are in for some dark, dark times.  It was hard getting people to vote on guns this election.  I couldn’t get gun owners here to lift a finger.  This is why we can never just win, and constantly struggle with victory and loss.

We made 800 calls to households between the two of us to get out the vote.  Our county had a goal of 20,000 phone calls.  We actually made 35,394 phone calls to households.  We stayed late, because two precincts had extended hours because of problems at the polling place.  I really feel like we did everything we could.  I hope to God it was enough.  Time will tell.  I’m blacking out news until there’s actual, real data.  For me, this election is over.  It’s just a matter of results… and the aftermath.

Politico has confirmed this.  I’m headed back to Victory Headquarters to get the vote out for his opponent.

Looks like the Black Panthers are trying to intimidate voters:

I’m happy to see the Philadelphia Police dealt with this problem, but this is a signficant problem.  We’re also hearing reports of Republican poll watchers getting kicked out of polling places.  The state legislature needs to deal with this problem, and act to preserve the integrity of elections in this commonwealth.  When people do stuff like this, they should be sent to prison.

We’re hearing turnout in GOP districts is phenomenal.  This is very good news.  It’s practically standing room only for get out the vote.  We’re overwhelmed with people wanting to make phone calls.

Yesterday, our Victory Office made 22500 calls, which accounts for 10% of the total volume in Pennsylvania.  So far today, Bitter and I have called 350 households.  We’re going to head back and make some more phone calls shortly.

I had submitted the following question to the person who contacted me claiming to represent McClintock’s campaign:

1. How do you think conservative values can be promoted in a heavily Democratic state like California? Do you think that conservatives will ever to be able to regain a significant role in California State Politics?
2. Do you think that Proposition 11 will help break the gridlock of partisan dominance enjoyed by the Democratic Party, or will it just replace the old system with another un-accountable, un-elected body of uber-officeholders like The Coastal Commission and the California Air Resources Board?
3. One issue that is important to my readers is the Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms.  If you’re elected to Congress, it will likely be alongside many new Democrats, who may not be as sympathetic to the right.  What steps would you take to ensure that, even under significant Democratic control, our rights under the Second Amendment suffer as little damage as possible.
4. Do you think there’s any hope for restoring lost Second Amendment rights to Californians? As someone who has been a leader in fighting for that, have you seen any developments that can give gun owners in California some hope that perhaps things will get better?
5. If elected to Congress, what kind of Supreme Court justices would you want to see nominated to the high court?  Are there any circumstances where you would vote ‘no’ on a nominee for the Supreme Court?

So far, no word back.  If you live in Tom’s district, please, make sure you get out and support him.  He’s a great supporter of the Second Amendemnt.  I wish I could have posted an interview, but in a busy campaign, sometimes things fall through the cracks.

It’s looking like Michael Nutter, Mayor of Philadelphia, is going to pay “street money” on behalf of Barack Obama.  That’s awfully nice of him.  For those of you who need a refresher on “street money”, you can check out this article.

The polls in Pennsylvania have opened.  Go vote.  Wear your NRA or other shooty clothing to the polls!  It always makes me feel better when I see other NRA members vote.  This one is for all the marbles!

We just got in from putting out the last of the Tom Corbett and Tom Manion signs we had left over.  We placed them at key on and off ramps that people will be taking as they head to or return from work, so the names will be fresh in their heads as they head into the voting booths.  We are ready for tomorrow.  Tomorrow morning we head to the Bucks County Victory Office in order to make calls to remind people to get out to vote.  I will probably also offer to help drive people who need a ride to the polls.  Here’s hoping we turn Pennsylvania red tomorrow!

Linoge details instances of left-leaning calls for boycotts of businesses that don’t agree with their political viewpoint.  Apparently it’s OK when they do it, but when we knuckle dragging, cousin humping, gun loving rednecks do the same thing to Cooper Firearms, it’s McCarthyism.

Bitter and I canvassed two large neighborhoods today, and ran into a couple of Obama Canvassers, who were driving their SUV around the neighborhood rather than walking it.  It’s conservation you can believe in.

Once we got back, it was a bit late to head out to canvass another neighborhood, so we decided to sit down and call the remaining neighborhoods.  All in all, we probably covered about 600 households today either on foot or via telephone.  After that, when we went out to get some food, we parked next to a couple of Democrat canvasers, who made foul gestures to our vehicle on the way out of the restaurant.  It was pleasing to see.

Tomorrow is the big day.  We’ll find out whether this whole enterprise will pay off with a victory.

UPDATE: I really like the slogans they put in the phone bank booths:

Phone Bank

We’re off to walk some precincts here in Bucks County on behalf of our NRA endorsed candidates.  I took today off work to help out.  The Obama Campaign is bringing people in from out of state.  I actually live with the people I’ll be canvassing.

Here’s some video from the “Victory in Pennsylvania” rally we attended on Saturday afternoon in Upper Bucks County, Pennsylvania.  It was attended by 7000 people, according to media reports.  That’s not bad, considering how small the venue is.  The Sportsmen’s coalition were given prime spots.  Showing here are Tom Manion, candidate for Congress for PA’s 8th district, Attorney General Tom Corbett, Governor Jane Swift, Governor Linda Lingle, Senator Arlen Specter, Senator Lindsey Graham, John, Cindy & Megan McCain.  You will notice in the crowd, there are hand made signs mentioning guns, and several sportsmen’s signs.  These are the advantages of getting active, and showing up early to help make signs.  The orange sign that says “I will keep my guns and my money! Obama can keep the change!” is one we made.  It had prime placement for media coverage.  Rallies are 100% political theater.  The speeches are mostly talking points and “Go Team!”.  But you can make a real difference by getting involved.  McCain might be ducking bringing up the Second Amendment, but it’s right there in the audience, for the media to see, thanks to Bucks County Sportsmen.

Bitter is learning why they call Pennsylvania a Battleground State. I say that jokingly, though.  I don’t remember any election being this bad.  Union thuggery is a staple of Philadelphia, but it’s traditionally been limited to the city.  This election is particularly, nasty, and the Democratic Party is bringing the nastiness out to the suburbs.  We were told MoveOn.org were the ones out canvasing the neighborhoods on behalf of Hope/Change/Vandalism on Saturday.  Pennsylvania needs change, but it’s not the kind of change these pieces of garbage are selling.  You don’t see our people out vandalizing Obama signs.

I think some people take exception to being lumped in under the “Sportsmen” moniker.  I don’t really think there’s anything sinister at work here, so much as it’s a reasonable moniker under which to put the coalition of hunters and shooters.  You’re not going to have “Shooters for Blandidate,” because, quite honestly, there are a lot of people out there that have no idea what a shooter is, and some people who think it’s a guy on a street corner fighting over drug turf.  You could try “Sport Shooters for Blandidate,” and leave out hunters, or you could do “Hunters for Blandidate,” and leave out shooters.

So what’s your blandidate for office to do?  I mean, you could get really ridiculous with coalitions, and do “Concealed Carry Permit Holders for Blandidate,” which could work, if people knew what that was, and there were actually votes there.  Or even more niche with “AR-15 Enthusiasts for Blandidate,” which is an even smaller subset.

So we’re stuck with the “Sportsmen” moniker.  You might not like it, but that’s your coalition.  If you want a different one, you’ll have to get a lot of people to vote under it, and work hard for it.  If you want to try that path… may you have better luck than me.  As it is, it’s difficult ot even get people motivated under the Sportsmen moniker.  Further subdivision just dilutes our political power.  And I say this as someone who’s never hunted, and has to listen to more than a few hunting stories as a “Sportsmen for McCain” volunteer.