That’s a big risk for just “Paranoia”, huh?

If as you say “s it fair to compare the probability of needing a gun to save your life to the chance of being struck by a meteorite?

Then why did you illegally own firearms? By your own admission, you’ve owned firearms legally and illegally over a 15 year period.

If the odds are so slight, why did you have the firearms then?

As you could see if you kept reading, I tried doing a somewhat crude control for stranger-on-stranger violent crime, and still came out with a number that’s in the league of deaths people consider it normal to take precautions to prevent.

Sebastian: “Why you stuck-up, half-witted, scruffy-looking… Nerf-herder!”

Mike: “Who’s scruffy-lookin’?”

Sebastian calculated odds of being a victim of violent crime based on a random distribution, then divided it by five to represent the fact that most violent crimes can be avoided with the right lifestyle choices.

He ended up with a rough estimate of 1%, or 1 in 100. The odds of being hit by a meteorite are 1 in 700,000. that’s seven thousand times more likely. For the risk of meteor impacts to be anywhere near the risk of violent crime, we’d have to accept the proposition that violent criminals exclusively target other violent criminals, and that innocent victims are a vanishingly rare anomaly. This proposition would completely undermine most gun control arguments. The numbers make it clear that you need to choose one: either violent crime against innocent victims is so rare that restricting lawful citizens’ access to guns in hope of indirectly decreasing the rate is a terrible overreaction, or violent crime is a small but realistic risk that’s worth preparing for, and your belief that such preparation is paranoid is incorrect. You simply can’t have it both ways.

That you’ve ignored the _overwhelming_ disparity of risks to nitpick a detail that makes little difference and is addressed later in the same post is just another indication that you really aren’t taking this discussion seriously.

“By contrast the violent crime rate in the us is currently 450 per 100,000 per year. Presuming that’s entirely random (it isn’t, far from it, actually, but let’s just assume it is for now)”

Aren’t you pro-gun guys the ones who continually tell me almost all gun violence is gang related and drug related. You legitimate gun guys, assuming your not also gang members or drug dealers, would then have a much decreased probability of experiencing an incident.

This is born out by the infrequency of the reported incidents. What Caleb shared last week is extremely rare in the pro-gun blogging world.

So, no you cannot presume the incidents of per-year gun violence are entirely random.

I don’t mind responding to him on my own blog because it is good to get the statistics and information out.

Sebastian did a great job of showing exactly how likely a person is to be a victim of crime. Maybe we can get some folks thinking about that.

And if they are less concerned by the odds, maybe they’ll focus on the stakes. IF (probably should be “when”) crime happens, what are the consequences of not being prepared?

Furthermore, what reasonable steps can one take to avoid being struck & killed by a meteor? On the off chance a meteor were to fall from space and hit you there’s nothing you could wear or carry that would provide adequate protection. There’s also no way for someone to anticipate such an event and react.

Does anyone here know someone who has been hit by a meteor?, probably not, but most of us know someone who has been the victim of a violent crime.

Speaking of mental illness, you see this shit from his buddy Laci?
http://lacithedog.blogspot.com/2009/11/45limpdick-is-more-like-it.html
http://lacithedog.blogspot.com/2009/11/45limpdick-redux.html

Real commendable behavior from the anti-gun front. Let’s talk about a man who served his country and now is in a wheelchair’s dick, and request he kill himself.

This is our opposition.

Isn’t it more interesting to look at the survival rate, once one becomes a victim, based upon whether one has a gun or not?

Wouldn’t it be part of the citizen’s militia job to protect the country from attack from outer space?

Maybe those meteorites are actually ballistic attackers?
I think we need portable rail guns with high explosive war heads for daily carry. Even if the odds are small, it doesn’t hurt to be prepared.

Since we don’t know if a meteorite wouldn’t hit our homes, we might want to consider a set up with more range at home.
Something with intercontinental capability and possibly a warhead measuring in the megaton range of nuclear capability.

But your point is completely sound. Violent crime is a low-probability, high-consequence risk, and as such it’s worth preparing for just like other low-probability risks with catastrophic consequences for a lack of preparation. It’s the same reason we keep fire extinguishers and buy home insurance. The risk may be low in absolute terms, but the consequences for a lack of preparedness are so high that they’re worth the cost of preparing.

That guns have a recreational value to offset the cost (much greater than a fire extinguisher, anyway) is a happy incidental benefit.

That there is right funny writing.