Jim Geraghty thinks Ron Paul is a non-movement, and his votes aren’t going to translate into support for other GOP candidates.
I think that if and when Ron Paul ceases his presidential bid, his supporters will go in a thousand different directions, including many saying “to hell with politics.” They’re not inclined towards compromise, and they’re not going to be harnessed by half-a-loaf or even eighty-percent-of-the-loaf candidates. In other words, Ron Paul’s support is non-transferrable.
Ron Paul has the most traction I’ve seen a libertarian minded candidate get, but I think the war has a lot to do with that. I have given up on libertarians for the most part, even though I still lean pretty heavily in that direction. My disdain of gun control grew out of a generally libertarian attitude, but I’ve given up on the other aspects of libertarianism, because I’d prefer to focus my efforts on just seeing a few bits of my libertarian ideals adopted by candidates who can win. I think that’s the only real way to be successful in politics, because politicians represent the aspirations of the various interest groups they represent, and those interest groups won’t always agree with each other. People complain about always having a “lesser of two evils” choice, but the political process almost guarantees it.
If Ron Paul’s candidacy represents a real and permanent movement within the GOP, I think it might be able to turn into something. It surely would drive the party, and its candidates, to adopt some more libertarian ideas. But I agree with Jim that’s not going to happen. When Ron loses the nomination, his supporters will scatter, and so will all the political capital they have built. Libertarians need to be interested in playing the dirty game of politics if they want to come out of the political wilderness, but among libertarians, I don’t see too many indications of that.